Loading...
The Nexus between Oil Rent and Economic Growth in Oil-Producing Countries
Albahkali, Wajan
Albahkali, Wajan
Citations
Altmetric:
Type
Supervisor
Subject
Date
Collections
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Abstract
This study examines the intricate relationship between oil production and economic growth
among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman from 1975 to 2023. A mixed-methods approach was
employed, integrating quantitative econometric analysis with qualitative country-level insights to
capture the relationship's numerical and contextual dimensions. Data were collected from the
World Bank, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and the International Energy Agency. The
key variables analyzed included oil production, oil rents (% of GDP), oil consumption, GDP
growth rates, and energy intensity. Descriptive statistics showed that Saudi Arabia contributed
approximately 42% of total GCC oil production over the study period, followed by the United
Arab Emirates at 20%, Kuwait at 16%, and Qatar at 10%. Bahrain and Oman together accounted
for the remaining 12%. Oil rents as a percentage of GDP ranged significantly across countries,
with Kuwait recording the highest average (42.7%), and Bahrain the lowest (7.5%). GDP growth
patterns fluctuated, with Qatar achieving the highest average annual GDP growth rate at 6.1%,
while Bahrain recorded a more modest 2.4%.
Correlation analysis indicated a strong positive relationship between oil consumption and GDP
growth (r = 0.71), suggesting domestic energy use drives economic activity in the GCC.
However, oil production itself showed a weaker and sometimes negative correlation with GDP
growth (r = -0.18), highlighting that mere volume of production without economic diversification
can limit long-term growth prospects. Regression analysis further revealed that a 1% increase in
oil consumption is associated with a 0.42% increase in GDP growth (p < 0.01), while a 1%
increase in oil rents contributes approximately 0.27% to GDP growth (p < 0.05).
Advanced econometric modeling using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique
identified both short-run and long-run relationships. In the short run, fluctuations in oil prices
and production volumes had significant impacts on GDP growth, with oil price shocks causing a
0.6% immediate decrease in GDP growth on average. In the long run, however, the elasticity of
GDP growth concerning oil consumption remained positive